Decide on enemy's most likely course of action
- type: Activity
- Id: Decide on enemy's most likely course of action
- Documentation: (DH) Alos requires background knowledge
(Checkmate) This too is a refinement of the analysis performed when choosing a Course of Action. The selection of a Course of Action involves a great deal of wargaming.
Ther eshould really eb best case/worst case done at this leveltoo ...
- Status:
- Predecessor:
- Successor:
- Component:
- Doer: Plnning staff - all of them! Typically the operators will take the lead in it (they'r eused to thinking about intent) but with links back to the Intel people. Even if Intel re not formally on teh staff, the plnners ought to get or 2 trustworty Intel officers ina s part of the disussion
- Owner: Plnning staff will claim ownership - Cief of Plns nd JFACC also have the right to express this. In this case, the planniners are morelikely to use their own assessments of enemy course of acion rather than senior officers, as long as he addresses the senior officers concens.
- Resource: Experience first; intelligence documents (eg current reports); news (diffrent from open source documents becuse it's curent); maybe news about grey countries; cultural etc (se situationl assessment); Red and Blue teams is an ideal way todo it; produce s assessment of enemy intent, notes, consensus on enemy intent (this tends topersist and become a convention within the group)
- Interval: Fairly quickly - within day of the whole situation starting up (like the previous)
Revisited fairly often within first 2 week s- mybe every other day
There after only revisited if major eent confirms or disproves it - Intel guys on staff should pay attention to it (Doug's guess), operators less ikely topy attention to it (DH guess)
- Pre-Condition: Sitution assessment; implies guidance; conceivable tht enough of a sit assess will come with guidane for this to be started immediately; expereince;
- Effect: hypothetical projection of sitution; focuses selection of importnnt Cogs (both rd and blue); don't know if it's essentilfor CoG anlysis or not; probably a prerequisite for finishing the CoG analysis
If you can know the enemy's plans, you have a huge advantage
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