The PRECiS Environment
Pacifica Large-scale NEO Scenario

Glen A. Reece
Department of Artificial Intelligence
University of Edinburgh

Austin Tate
Artificial Intelligence Applications Institute
University of Edinburgh

David I. Brown
Mitre Corporation

Mark Hoffman
ISX Corporation

Rebecca E. Burnard
ISX Corporation

21 March 1994

Version 2.0

Scenario described by:

David I. Brown, Mitre Corporation

Last Updated: Wed Jun 7 14:30:07 1995

The scenario is based on fictional unrest in the Pacific and European Commands.

1 Backdrop

The following military operations serve as a backdrop to allow ARPA/Rome Laboratory PI technologies to illustrate how planning and scheduling can be accomplished with limited resources. The US European Command has been tasked by the National Command Authorities to plan and execute a major deployment of US combat forces into Bandirma-Fletcherania. As with previous deployments of this magnitude, Operation DESERT SHIELD being the most recent, the deployment requires a substantial portion of USTRANSCOM's airlift and sealift assets. Force and movement requirements are identified in USEUCOM OPLAN 4618.

With the attention of the US Government focused on Europe and the Middle East, North Country-W takes the opportunity to fortify positions along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). US intelligence analysts believe that this is a prelude to military action and recommends that, at a minimum, US military dependents, civilian contractors, and non-essential US government employees be evacuated from South Country-W. The Commander, US Forces Country-W is tasked by the American Ambassador to provide logistics support for this operation. While most evacuees are scheduled to depart on board commercial chartered aircraft, some USTRANSCOM assets are required to support the operation. These requirements are identified in COMUSW OPLAN 5217.

2 Pacifica

Faced with loss of financial resources from external sources and diminishing support from the Pacifica populous, the AL have begun a systematic effort to undermine the established government. Their stated objective is to overthrow the government and assume leadership and authority. Initial actions had been limited to terrorist attacks on government officials. In recent weeks, the AL have begun to capture the airfields capable of supporting international flights. With the capture and destruction of the last airfield at Delta, terrorists have concentrated on violence against officials in the capital city. Random acts of violence have resulted in the death of several members of the diplomatic community.

Confronted with the inability of the government to maintain internal security, the US embassy orders the evacuation of US citizens and US government employees. With the loss of airfields capable of supporting Department of State chartered aircraft missions, the US Ambassador requests assistance from USCINCPAC. Due to the inaccessibility of Pacifica by other than long range aircraft, the United States's NATO allies request that the US also evacuate their citizens and diplomatic staffs. This request is approved by the Secretary of State who advises the Secretary of Defense to provide whatever support is deemed practical.

The Yian Government views the situation in Pacifica as a personal affront to their peoples and a threat to the Tondi brethren in Pacifica, and is particularly indignant by requests by the US for Yian assistance. Yia advises the US Ambassador to that country that Yian air bases and commercial facilities are not available for use by the US or its allies.

3 Situation Development

Even before the formal request from the US Ambassador for assistance, low level planning had begun at USPACOM. The PACOM Operations Planning Team (OPT), consisting of representatives from the various staff Directorates and component commands, had convened to review the situation and consider possible courses of action. It was agreed that any noncombatant evacuation operation would require sufficient forces to gain control and maintain the security of embarkation points, be they airfields seaports, or beaches. In addition, because of the destruction of many of the support facilities at potential APOEs, specifically POL storage tanks, strategic airlift would either require intransit support from neighboring countries or extensive aerial refueling. Informal contact between the OPT and the USTRANSCOM CAT has occurred. USTRANSCOM has provided the OPT with an initial list of Transportation intelligence Essential Elements of Information (EEI) and aerial refueling tanker support feasibility. Discussions revolve around the possible PACOM mission and the ramifications on transportation and air refueling requirements.

4 Course of Action Development

Immediately following the request from the US Ambassador, USCINCPAC receives a WARNING ORDER from the Joint Chiefs of Staff advising him of the Secretary of State's decision to support evacuation of allied personnel and directing the development of Courses of Action (COAs) for NEO.

Using the Theater-level Analysis, Replanning and Global Execution Toolbox (TARGET) developed under the auspices of ARPA and Rome Laboratory, the OPT has already defined the problem and begun to develop a military objective based on their assessment of the impact on US interests and the potential involvement of US forces. They have identified available combat and NEO support forces. This initial plan, though incomplete and elementary, is the beginnings of an OPLAN database and allows action officers to start identifying support force packages and timing criteria.

Discussions between the OPT and the Deployment Management Team (DMT) at the US Transportation Command are underway. Video teleconferencing capabilities are used to their fullest extent to show the USTRANSCOM staff, on a computerized map (via the Mapping Analysis Tool for Transportation [MATT]), which airfields the OPT is planning to use to support their operations. In a ``face-to-face'' conference, the USTRANSCOM Joint Transportation Intelligence Center is able to advise the OPT of the potential risks, threat, infrastructure, and benefits that each location possesses. In addition, USTRANSCOM uses the initial plan to accomplish a transportation analysis using the Dynamic Analysis and Replanning Tool (DART) to transfer deployment requirements to the Joint Flow and Analysis System for Transportation (JFAST). Their analysis is passed to PACOM via the TWBNet.

Again using TARGET, the PACOM action officers begin to finalize their plans. Support force packages have been identified and inserted into the deployment plan, movement channels to support sustainment have been calculated, and initial unit sourcing is completed. Because TARGET can support rapid plan development, several COAs have been developed. This allows CINCPAC to select from a range of options depending on the response of the AL as evacuation operations get underway. After a transportation assessment by USTRANSCOM, the COAs are submitted to the JCS for NCA approval.

5 Course of Action Selection

The CJCS advises CINCPAC that the NCA has approved the PACOM plan to secure the International Airport at Delta using an airborne assault by elements of the 6th Infantry Division. A Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF) composed of elements of III MEF will be forward deployed on amphibious ships to provide additional support should the situation deteriorate.

6 Execution Planning

The Commander, Joint Task Force (CJTF), who deployed with an initial cadre upon receipt of the JCS WARNING ORDER, is in place aboard the USS Coronado off the coast of Pacifica. He advises that an outbreak of Hemorrhagic Fever, a highly contagious disease, will require quarantining noncombatants as they are evacuated. He directs the modification of the plan to include medical units and indicates that USTRANSCOM should be prepared to provide a significant amount of medical evacuation capability.

Using DART, which is a complementary system to TARGET, the PACOM Operation Plans Division, supporting the OPT, modifies the plan to reflect the additional force requirements. The USTRANSCOM DMT is advised of the additional lift that will be required via the Video teleconference.