Artificial Intelligence Applications Institute
University of Edinburgh
David I. Brown
Rebecca E. Burnard
21 March 1994
Scenario described by:
David I. Brown, Mitre Corporation
Last Updated: Wed Jun 7 14:30:07 1995
The scenario is based on fictional unrest in the Pacific and European Commands.
With the attention of the US Government focused on Europe and the Middle East, North Country-W takes the opportunity to fortify positions along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). US intelligence analysts believe that this is a prelude to military action and recommends that, at a minimum, US military dependents, civilian contractors, and non-essential US government employees be evacuated from South Country-W. The Commander, US Forces Country-W is tasked by the American Ambassador to provide logistics support for this operation. While most evacuees are scheduled to depart on board commercial chartered aircraft, some USTRANSCOM assets are required to support the operation. These requirements are identified in COMUSW OPLAN 5217.
Confronted with the inability of the government to maintain internal security, the US embassy orders the evacuation of US citizens and US government employees. With the loss of airfields capable of supporting Department of State chartered aircraft missions, the US Ambassador requests assistance from USCINCPAC. Due to the inaccessibility of Pacifica by other than long range aircraft, the United States's NATO allies request that the US also evacuate their citizens and diplomatic staffs. This request is approved by the Secretary of State who advises the Secretary of Defense to provide whatever support is deemed practical.
The Yian Government views the situation in Pacifica as a personal affront to their peoples and a threat to the Tondi brethren in Pacifica, and is particularly indignant by requests by the US for Yian assistance. Yia advises the US Ambassador to that country that Yian air bases and commercial facilities are not available for use by the US or its allies.
Using the Theater-level Analysis, Replanning and Global Execution Toolbox (TARGET) developed under the auspices of ARPA and Rome Laboratory, the OPT has already defined the problem and begun to develop a military objective based on their assessment of the impact on US interests and the potential involvement of US forces. They have identified available combat and NEO support forces. This initial plan, though incomplete and elementary, is the beginnings of an OPLAN database and allows action officers to start identifying support force packages and timing criteria.
Discussions between the OPT and the Deployment Management Team (DMT) at the US Transportation Command are underway. Video teleconferencing capabilities are used to their fullest extent to show the USTRANSCOM staff, on a computerized map (via the Mapping Analysis Tool for Transportation [MATT]), which airfields the OPT is planning to use to support their operations. In a ``face-to-face'' conference, the USTRANSCOM Joint Transportation Intelligence Center is able to advise the OPT of the potential risks, threat, infrastructure, and benefits that each location possesses. In addition, USTRANSCOM uses the initial plan to accomplish a transportation analysis using the Dynamic Analysis and Replanning Tool (DART) to transfer deployment requirements to the Joint Flow and Analysis System for Transportation (JFAST). Their analysis is passed to PACOM via the TWBNet.
Again using TARGET, the PACOM action officers begin to finalize their plans. Support force packages have been identified and inserted into the deployment plan, movement channels to support sustainment have been calculated, and initial unit sourcing is completed. Because TARGET can support rapid plan development, several COAs have been developed. This allows CINCPAC to select from a range of options depending on the response of the AL as evacuation operations get underway. After a transportation assessment by USTRANSCOM, the COAs are submitted to the JCS for NCA approval.
Using DART, which is a complementary system to TARGET, the PACOM Operation Plans Division, supporting the OPT, modifies the plan to reflect the additional force requirements. The USTRANSCOM DMT is advised of the additional lift that will be required via the Video teleconference.